Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

Very few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Thursday. The macroeconomic event calendars for Germany, the United Kingdom, and the Eurozone are empty. Only the United States will release reports on GDP and unemployment claims. The GDP report will be the second estimate for the first quarter, objectively the least significant of the three estimates. The unemployment claims report would have to show a significant deviation from the forecast to elicit a market reaction—something that rarely happens.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among the fundamental events on Thursday, we can note the speeches by Federal Reserve representatives Thomas Barkin, Austan Goolsbee, Adriana Kugler, and Mary Daly. However, as we've mentioned before, speeches by central bank officials currently do not influence the market, as the central banks' policies and outlooks are 100% clear. The market continues to trade solely on the "Trump factor." Recently, many Fed members have expressed their views on the current situation and the outlook for monetary policy. In summary, they emphasize the need to wait for the full impact of Trump's tariffs to be reflected in economic indicators. Yesterday's Fed minutes confirmed this perspective.

We believe that the only factor that still matters to the market is the trade war, which, although gradually de-escalating, is ongoing. Donald Trump continues to announce the signing of trade deals, but this information provides only weak support for the dollar. The dollar's decline may continue if trade agreements with most countries cannot be finalized or negotiations are delayed. The dollar could keep falling even without new tariffs from Trump, as market sentiment toward the U.S. president and his policies remains extremely negative.

Conclusions:

On the penultimate trading day of the week, both currency pairs may continue to decline as it appears to be time for a technical correction. At the same time, we do not observe strong reasons for a sustained increase in the value of the US dollar. It seems the uptrend in both pairs may have reached its peak for now, especially since there are no indications of a new escalation in the trade war. However, we also do not see any clear signs of de-escalation.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.