Trade Analysis for Thursday:

1H Chart of GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair also traded higher on Thursday, but only during the American trading session. In the second half of the day, it became known that the U.S. economy grew by 4.4% in the third quarter, exceeding forecasts. The dollar could have shown growth following Donald Trump's cancellation of tariffs on the UK. However, neither the first report nor the second event was taken into account by the market. As before, we believe that the dollar will continue to fall in 2026. Donald Trump's protectionist policy significantly reduces investors' and market makers' willingness to deal in the dollar, which was once considered a "safe haven." It is certainly no longer the world's safest haven. From a technical perspective, the pair has consolidated above the descending trendline this week, so growth can also be expected based on this factor.

5M Chart of GBP/USD

On the 5-minute timeframe, a huge number of trading signals were formed on Thursday, each of which beginner traders could easily work with. Until the middle of the American session, the price was only bouncing between the areas of 1.3403-1.3407 and 1.3437-1.3446. In total, 7 bounces were counted. Each of these signals could have brought 10-15 pips of profit. Then a consolidation above the 1.3437-1.3446 range occurred, allowing new long positions to be opened. The nearest target of 1.3484-1.3489 was reached and even exceeded.

How to Trade on Friday:

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has turned to the upside, so we can expect the British pound to grow in the coming weeks. There are no global foundations for medium-term dollar growth, so in 2026, we expect a resumption of the global upward trend of 2025, which could push the pair to 1.4000 in the next couple of months. Donald Trump's policy still does not imply strengthening for the American currency.

On Friday, beginner traders can consider short positions if the pair consolidates below the 1.3484-1.3489 area, with a target of 1.3437-1.3446. A consolidation above the area of 1.3437-1.3446 allows for remaining in long positions with a target of 1.3529-1.3543 or opening new ones.

On the 5-minute timeframe, trading can currently be conducted at 1.3203-1.3212, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3365, 1.3403-1.3407, 1.3437-1.3446, 1.3484-1.3489, 1.3529-1.3543, 1.3574-1.3590, 1.3643-1.3652, and 1.3682.

On Friday, the release of activity indices for the services and manufacturing sectors for January is scheduled in the UK and the US, which could be of interest. In the UK, retail sales data will also be released, and in the USA, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index will also be released. Each of these reports could impact price movement.

Main rules of the trading system:

1. Signal strength is judged by the time required to form the signal (rebound or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened on false signals near a level, then all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can generate many false signals or none at all. In any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4. Trades are opened between the start of the European session and the middle of the American session; after that, all trades must be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, MACD-based signals should be traded only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.
6. If two levels are located too close to each other (5–20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
7. After the price moves 20 pips in the correct direction, set the stop loss to breakeven.

What is shown on the charts:

Support and resistance price levels — levels that serve as targets when opening buys or sells. Take Profit can be placed near them.

Red lines — channels or trendlines that reflect the current tendency and show which direction is preferable to trade now.

MACD indicator (14,22,3) — histogram and signal line — an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (always listed in the news calendar) can strongly affect a currency pair's movement. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done with maximum caution, or positions should be closed, to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding move.

Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are the keys to long-term trading success.