empty
19.06.2025 07:58 PM
EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on June 19th (Review of Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.1445 level and planned to make trading decisions based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart to understand what happened. The price declined, but it fell short of forming a false breakout near 1.1445 by just a few points, so I remained without trades in the first half of the day. The technical outlook for the second half of the day remained unchanged.

This image is no longer relevant

To open long positions on EUR/USD:

The absence of fundamental statistics from the eurozone helped reduce pressure on the euro, allowing the EUR/USD pair to hold near the weekly low and rebound from it. Unfortunately, there are no fundamental U.S. statistics expected in the second half of the day either, so high volatility is unlikely due to the holiday. If the euro declines, I will act near the 1.1445 support level, which we failed to reach earlier. A false breakout there will be a reason to buy EUR/USD in anticipation of a recovery and a retest of the 1.1487 resistance. A breakout and retest of this range will confirm the correct entry point, targeting the 1.1529 area. The furthest target will be the 1.1579 level, where I will take profit. If EUR/USD declines and there is no activity near 1.1445, pressure on the pair will increase, leading to a deeper drop. In that case, bears may reach 1.1408. Only after a false breakout form will I consider buying the euro. I also plan to open long positions immediately on a rebound from 1.1377, aiming for an intraday upward correction of 30–35 points.

To open short positions on EUR/USD:

Sellers showed up but lacked support from large players, which led to a correction in the pair. In case of another upward attempt, a false breakout around 1.1487 will be a signal to open short positions, targeting the 1.1445 support. A breakout and consolidation below this level will be a good selling signal, with a move toward 1.1408. The furthest target will be the 1.1377 area, where I plan to take profit. If EUR/USD continues to rise in the second half of the day and bears remain inactive around 1.1487 (where moving averages are acting in sellers' favor), buyers may push the pair toward 1.1529. I will sell there only after an unsuccessful consolidation. I also plan to open short positions immediately on a rebound from 1.1579, aiming for a downward correction of 30–35 points.

This image is no longer relevant

COT Report (Commitment of Traders) – June 10

The COT report for June 10 showed a reduction in short positions and a rise in long positions. The data showing a sharp drop in U.S. inflation did not provide sufficient support for the dollar, despite the clear expectation that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged in the near future. More important will be how Powell comments on the inflation situation and what forecasts he gives for potential rate cuts in the fall. This will determine the future direction of the EUR/USD pair, which currently shows no signs of struggling to rise—something the report confirms. The COT report indicated that non-commercial long positions increased by 5,968 to 208,754, while non-commercial short positions declined by 4,293 to 115,729. As a result, the gap between long and short positions increased by 9,921.

This image is no longer relevant

Indicator Signals:

Moving AveragesTrading is conducted below the 30- and 50-day moving averages, which indicates continued downward pressure on the pair.

Note: The periods and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 chart and differ from the classic daily moving averages on the D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands In case of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator around 1.1445 will act as support.

Indicator Descriptions:

  • Moving average – Smooths volatility and noise to define the current trend. Period – 50 (yellow on chart); Period – 30 (green on chart).
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) – Fast EMA period: 12; Slow EMA period: 26; Signal line SMA period: 9.
  • Bollinger Bands – Period: 20.
  • Non-commercial traders – Speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting certain criteria.
  • Non-commercial long positions – Total long open positions held by non-commercial traders.
  • Non-commercial short positions – Total short open positions held by non-commercial traders.
  • Net non-commercial position – The difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
Miroslaw Bawulski,
Analytical expert of InstaTrade
© 2007-2025

Recommended Stories

How to Trade the GBP/USD Currency Pair on July 10th: Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Wednesday Trade Analysis: GBP/USD – 1H Chart On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair was also stuck in a flat movement, with very low volatility. There were virtually no price movements during

Paolo Greco 08:56 2025-07-10 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Currency Pair on July 10th: Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Wednesday Trade Analysis: EUR/USD – 1H Chart On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair continued to trade in line with the prevailing trend from the previous week. Market activity was minimal throughout

Paolo Greco 08:48 2025-07-10 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Trade Review for GBP/USD on July 10th

On Wednesday, GBP/USD remained within its descending channel. However, a more interesting setup emerged in the 4-hour time frame, where the price attempted several times to break through the Senkou

Paolo Greco 06:57 2025-07-10 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Trade Review for EUR/USD on July 10th

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair continued moving within a weak downward channel, as previously forecast. However, volatility dropped to a minimum, there was no macroeconomic backdrop for the third consecutive

Paolo Greco 06:45 2025-07-10 UTC+2

How to Trade the GBP/USD Currency Pair on July 9th: Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

On Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair continued its moderate downward movement, which is clearly of a technical and corrective nature. On both Monday and Tuesday, there were no significant macroeconomic events

Paolo Greco 08:46 2025-07-09 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Currency Pair on July 9th? Simple Tips and Trade Breakdown for Beginners

On Tuesday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued its mild downward movement in line with the prevailing trend. After a fairly strong upward move, the market began a correction. The nature

Paolo Greco 08:28 2025-07-09 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Trade Review for GBP/USD on July 9th

The GBP/USD pair extended last week's decline throughout Tuesday. As a reminder, the U.S. dollar had multiple factors supporting its potential strength last week, but it appreciated on only

Paolo Greco 07:35 2025-07-09 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Trade Review for EUR/USD on July 9th

The EUR/USD pair continued to decline on Tuesday, even though there was no fundamental justification for the dollar's growth. It was reported that Donald Trump decided to raise tariffs

Paolo Greco 07:09 2025-07-09 UTC+2

How to Trade the GBP/USD Currency Pair on July 8TH? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Monday Trade Analysis: GBP/USD 1H chart On Monday, the GBP/USD pair was clearly trading sideways. On the hourly timeframe, it consolidated below the ascending trendline, but in our view, this

Paolo Greco 10:45 2025-07-08 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Currency Pair on July 8th: Simple Tips and Trade Review for Beginners

Monday Trade Review: EUR/USD, 1H Chart On Monday, the EUR/USD pair traded with a downward bias, and the U.S. dollar posted a fairly strong gain. As we've mentioned before, even

Paolo Greco 10:09 2025-07-08 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaTrade anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.