Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

No macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Thursday. The only points of attention today will be Christine Lagarde's speeches and the results of the Bank of England meeting, which will be discussed below. It's also important not to forget the military conflict between Iran and Israel, which the United States may officially join, and Donald Trump's trade-related actions. These are the primary factors that may influence the movement of both instruments today.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among Thursday's fundamental events, we can highlight Lagarde's speeches. These are potentially significant events, but we do not expect any elevated rhetoric from the European Central Bank President. The ECB meeting was held recently, so there's no reason to expect any new statements today.

Also noteworthy is the BoE meeting, the outcome of which is already largely known. The main point of interest will be the voting results on the key interest rate. Depending on how the vote splits, it may significantly affect the pound sterling's movement around midday.

We believe that the trade war remains the most important factor for the market, and there are still no signs of resolution. Other relevant issues include mass unrest in the U.S., Trump's so-called "One Big Beautiful Bill," the presence or absence of progress in trade negotiations with 75 countries, new tariffs, and increases in existing tariffs.

While the dollar could theoretically benefit from the escalation between Israel and Iran, especially with the U.S. directly involved, we believe it is unlikely to gain significant support from such a troubling development.

Conclusions:

During the penultimate trading day of the week, both currency pairs may experience high volatility. The market will primarily focus on the conflict involving Iran and the U.S. and the BoE's meeting. As a result, price movements may again be quite erratic.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.