See also
The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart of BTC/USD has become more complicated in recent months. We observed a corrective downward structure that completed near the $75,000 mark. After that, a rather strong upward movement began, which may be viewed as an impulsive bullish trend. The second wave in this segment appeared tiny and unconvincing. Therefore, I consider the current section to be impulsive in nature. If this assumption is correct, the trend still lacks a convincing wave 5, the peak of which should surpass the peak of wave 3. Based on this, I expect one more final upward impulse. A successful breakout through the 100.0% Fibonacci level would indicate a continuation of the bullish leg, which could potentially extend further under certain circumstances.
Market sentiment is driving Bitcoin, but fundamentals are inconsistent
The news backdrop occasionally supports Bitcoin, but not consistently. I would argue that market participants tend to interpret any news in favor of the leading cryptocurrency, or simply ignore the news altogether and keep buying. What we're witnessing is the development of an upward trend driven by emotion, demand, and belief in Bitcoin's sky-high future value. The rally from $75,000 to $111,000 exhibits all the classic signs of a "pump." But when a pump ends, decline begins.
The explanation is simple
BTC/USD has rallied considerably over the past two and a half months. Buyers only began facing resistance near the 100.0% Fibonacci level. Three failed attempts to break through this mark suggest the market is primed for another corrective wave. However, I still expect to see a more convincing wave 5 afterwards. Wave 5 could even extend further, but that can only be confirmed after a successful breakout beyond $110,000.
The news backdrop plays a relatively minor role in Bitcoin's development. I don't see any significant changes in recent weeks that would explain a drop in demand for Bitcoin. However, notably, the S&P 500 index has also struggled to rise recently. It seems that the leading instruments in both the US crypto and stock markets rebounded quickly after the first months of Donald Trump's return, but now lack a clear narrative for continued growth. I still believe the drop in February–March won't be the only one in 2025.
Geopolitical pressures intensify, but Bitcoin faces a technical ceiling
Tensions in the Middle East have escalated in recent weeks, while Donald Trump continues to pressure China and the European Union. As recently as yesterday, he renewed criticism toward Brussels, lamenting the EU's failure to offer a fair trade deal. Thus, US–EU trade negotiations remain stalled, and talks with Beijing show little progress or momentum. Still, these developments are not what stopped Bitcoin; rather, it was the $110,000 level.
Based on my analysis of BTC/USD, the bullish wave structure continues to develop, though it has a peculiar nature and shaky foundation. The recent price surge was not driven by strong fundamental news, and the $110,000 mark has halted bullish momentum for the fourth time in a row. Setting aside wave theory, one could argue that a new downward trend segment is forming. Accordingly, we may soon see at least a corrective wave targeting below the $100,200 mark. At the same time, we have yet to witness a convincing wave 5.
On a larger wave scale, the bullish trend segment is still unfolding, but its internal structure remains ambiguous due to the virtual absence of corrective waves.
Key principles of my wave analysis:
You have already liked this post today
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Bitcoin has once again failed in its attempt to test and consolidate above the $120,000 mark, currently dipping back below $119,000. Ethereum has also slightly retreated after attempting to break
Solana – Friday, July 25, 2025 With the EMA in a Death Cross condition and the RSI (14) in a Neutral Bearish condition, Solana cryptocurrency indicates that sellers are still
Litecoin – Friday, July 25, 2025 The appearance of divergence between the RSI(14) indicator and Litecoin's price movement indicates the potential for limited upside. The RSI(14) remains in a neutral
Bitcoin continues to trade within the 116,500–120,000 channel, showing solid volatility. Ethereum, however, is performing significantly worse following a recent decline in spot ETF inflows. Meanwhile, yesterday Tether CEO Paolo
Bitcoin once again attempted to break above $119,000 but failed, retreating today toward the $117,000 level. Ethereum has dropped back below $3,600 and is currently heading toward the $3,500 area
InstaTrade
PAMM accounts
Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.
If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.
Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?
Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaTrade anyway.
We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.