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13.06.2025 01:09 PM
USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

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The USD/CAD pair is showing a modest recovery from levels below 1.3600, retracing most of the previous day's losses, supported by a rebound in the U.S. dollar.

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In addition, concerns over supply disruptions in the Middle East are driving a sharp rise in crude oil prices, which have reached five-month highs.

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Since the Canadian dollar is a commodity-linked currency, its value is sensitive to oil prices. Along with the reduced likelihood of further rate cuts by the Bank of Canada and expectations of a U.S.–Canada trade agreement, these factors are providing support to the Canadian dollar. Improved trade prospects and a stabilizing monetary policy in Canada may further strengthen the CAD, thereby limiting any sustained upside in the USD/CAD pair.

Meanwhile, the growing market belief that the Federal Reserve will resume its rate-cutting cycle as early as September — supported by signs of slowing inflation in the U.S. — is limiting aggressive U.S. dollar buying. For this reason, bullish traders are advised to wait for confirmation of strong buying interest before opening new long positions.

From a technical standpoint, oscillators on the daily chart remain deep in negative territory, which means it's too early to talk about sustained buying in the pair.

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaTrade
© 2007-2025

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