Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the British Pound

The 1.3526 price test in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had been in oversold territory for a prolonged period and began to recover, which allowed Scenario #2 for buying to unfold, resulting in a modest rise toward the 1.3555 level.

In the second half of the day, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations are scheduled for release. The market's response to this data is likely to be moderate, given the current geopolitical backdrop.

The sentiment index reflects the confidence or concern of citizens and indirectly signals their willingness to spend. In times of geopolitical uncertainty, a sharp drop in this index can foreshadow declining consumer demand, which negatively impacts economic growth. This amplifies the pressure already caused by external shocks. Inflation expectations, in turn, influence the behavior of both consumers and businesses. Persistent growth in these expectations prompts consumers to make purchases immediately out of fear that prices will rise further.

Therefore, despite geopolitics dominating the headlines, close attention to these economic indicators remains crucial. They help gauge how severely geopolitical shocks are affecting the economy and what action may be necessary to mitigate the impact. Ignoring these signals is akin to trading blindly — and that can lead to costly mistakes.

As for the intraday strategy, I will continue to rely on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:I plan to buy the pound today at the entry point near 1.3572 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.3609 (thicker green line). At 1.3609, I will exit long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point pullback. A strong rally in the pound today is unlikely. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise.

Scenario #2:I also plan to buy the pound if the price tests 1.3542 twice consecutively while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. A rise toward the 1.3572 and 1.3609 levels can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:I plan to sell the pound today after a break below 1.3542 (red line on the chart), which could lead to a swift decline. The key target for sellers will be 1.3508, where I will exit short positions and open longs in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 point rebound. Sellers may become active at any moment. Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline.

Scenario #2:I also plan to sell the pound if the price tests 1.3572 twice consecutively while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.3542 and 1.3508 can then be expected.

On the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for long positions
• Thick green line – suggested take-profit level; further growth above this is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for short positions
• Thick red line – suggested take-profit level; further decline below this is unlikely
• MACD Indicator – overbought and oversold zones should guide market entries

Important Note for Beginner Forex Traders:

Beginner traders should make market entry decisions with great caution. It is best to stay out of the market before major economic reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without them, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly — especially if you trade large volumes without proper money management.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous decisions based on live market conditions is a losing strategy for intraday traders.