Trade Review and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 143.81 price level during the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had already dropped significantly below the zero mark, which limited the dollar's downward potential. For this reason, I didn't sell the dollar.

Traders and analysts closely monitoring the fresh data on services PMI will have plenty to observe today. A drop in these indicators below the 50-point threshold is expected, which could signal looming problems in the U.S. economy. This may accelerate the decline in the USD/JPY pair. A deterioration in PMI readings could create a domino effect, negatively impacting consumer and business sentiment. Concerns about slowing economic growth in the second quarter of this year may lead to reduced consumer spending and investment, further intensifying negative pressure on the economy. As a result, a sustained decline in PMI indexes could prompt the Fed to implement stimulus measures, which would also weigh on the U.S. dollar.

As for intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 144.02 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to the 144.54 level (thicker green line on the chart). Around 144.54, I will exit the long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point move in the reverse direction. A rise in the pair today can be expected only after strong U.S. data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 143.67 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. A rise toward the opposite levels of 144.02 and 144.54 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after a breakdown of the 143.67 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 143.15, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 point reversal from the level. Downward pressure on the pair is possible at any moment today. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 144.02 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 143.67 and 143.15 can be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the estimated price to set a Take Profit or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the estimated price to set a Take Profit or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't apply money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember: to trade successfully, you must have a clear trading plan like the one I've presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.