26.06.2025 05:11 AMEUR/USD
昨日公佈的美國5月份新屋銷售數據不如預期——實際售出623,000套，而預期為694,000套，且4月份的數字由743,000套下調至722,000套。結果，銷量下降了13.7%。歐元上漲了49點，而標普500指數收盤持平。
今天對於美國數據來說至關重要。第一季度GDP可能顯示下降-0.2%。同一時期的個人消費支出（PCE）物價指數預計從2.4%上升至3.6%，而5月份的耐久財訂單預計增長8.6%。然而，在4月份下降-6.3%後，這一新的數字並不特別令人印象深刻。
技術上來看，美國美元應當承受壓力，但股市可能面臨同樣的壓力。關鍵問題在於，貨幣市場和股市的避險行為到底會有多同步。
再次查看每週歐元圖表，分歧依然存在。難以確定當價格上升至下一個目標1.1826時，這種分歧是否仍然有效，但如果真發生，那將是歐元反轉進入中期下降趨勢的理想時機。
在日線圖上，1.1820 的目標對應於價格通道的上邊界。然而，需要注意的是，當趨勢逆轉時，歐元往往無法觸及價格通道的邊界。
4 小時圖表未提供更多明確訊息。如果價格在 1.1692 水平之上整固，且伴隨利好數據，則上升趨勢可能持續。
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