Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are a few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Friday, and the most significant ones will be released in the UK. Recall that in Britain, macroeconomic data is released in blocks rather than individually. Today's reports on April GDP and industrial production will be published. Given the current circumstances, where the market pays no attention to the European Central Bank's tightening monetary policy, the US inflation reports, and other equally important reports, we do not expect any market reaction to the less significant data from Great Britain. In the US, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index will also be released, though it is unlikely to interest traders.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among the fundamental events on Friday, we can highlight the speech of the Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel. However, the day before (that is, yesterday), the European Central Bank decided to raise all three rates, but the market did not respond at all. Thus, Nagel is unlikely to convey anything new to the market, and the market is unlikely to monitor Nagel's speech while the White House continues to flood the news with fantastical statements.

The geopolitical backdrop continues to leave much to be desired, as Iran and the US have again moved closer to resuming conflict and failing negotiations. Negotiations between Washington and Tehran have concluded at least five times this week alone and have resumed just as many times. The conflict flares up with new intensity and then subsides. Leading this parade is Donald Trump. He wants to launch new strikes, promises a deal soon, and then declares the negotiations a failure while blaming Iran for the breakdown. We are virtually certain that 90% of the information coming from Trump is inaccurate. Nevertheless, the market continues to react sensitively to every new statement from the American president.

General Conclusions:

On the last trading day of the week, both currency pairs may trade quite actively if Trump makes a few more contradictory statements. The euro can be traded today from the area of 1.1584-1.1594, while the British pound can be traded from the area of 1.3380-1.3386. Geopolitics remains a key influencing factor in the currency market.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is evaluated based on the time it takes to form (bounce or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may generate many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be overlooked.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.