Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The price test at 144.35 occurred when the MACD indicator began rising from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the dollar. However, considering that the pair had already made a significant upward move, no new upward surge followed.

Yesterday, it was revealed that in May, consumer sentiment in the United States saw a sharp improvement, rebounding from its lowest levels in the past five years. This upswing supported the U.S. dollar and weakened the Japanese yen. The Consumer Confidence Index, calculated by the Conference Board, rose by 12.3 points to 98. This jump represents the largest monthly gain in the last four years. The unexpected surge in the index reflects growing optimism among U.S. citizens regarding the current economic situation and their short-term outlook.

Considering that traders completely ignored statements from Bank of Japan officials about continuing the path of interest rate hikes, demand for USD/JPY is likely to remain steady in the near term.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 144.77 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 145.61 (thicker green line). Around 145.61, I intend to exit long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 pip reversal from the entry level). It's best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and beginning to rise.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 144.14 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 144.77 and 145.61 can be expected.

Sell Scenario

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after a breakout below the 144.14 level (red line on the chart), which could lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The main target for sellers will be 143.44, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip reversal from the level). Market pressure on the pair is unlikely to return today. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and beginning to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the pair tests the 144.77 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 144.14 and 143.44 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.