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17.09.2026 05:50 AM
The GBP/USD currency pair on Wednesday, as expected, showed a powerful, volatile move—but not in the direction most traders anticipated. Recall that the market assumed the Federal Reserve's stance would be "formally hawkish" while the decision would amount to a "dovish tightening." In other words, the market believed in a rate hike but did not expect signals of further increases. However, Kevin Warsh and the entire Fed surprised with a truly hawkish tone, independence from Donald Trump, and a commitment to bring inflation back to 2%. As a result, the dollar gained about 80 pips during the evening hours. From now on, the market will trade through the prism that the Fed may tighten again before year-end. Today the Bank of England meets, but we now have serious doubts that it can halt GBP/USD's decline. The BoE is unlikely to hike today, and its statement may be flat and uninspiring. We believe sterling could continue falling unless the BoE declares readiness to tighten at the next meeting.
Technically, the pound continues forming a downtrend. At best, sterling can expect corrective moves within that downtrend. The dollar will not rise every day like it did Wednesday evening, but today the BoE meeting could trigger another leg down for the pair.
On the 5-minute timeframe on Wednesday, one sell signal formed that let traders take a decent profit. During the European session, price settled below the 1.3465–1.3480 area, enabling short positions. Opening positions before the Fed meeting were risky, so short trades should have been protected with stop-loss orders.
COT reports for the British pound show that non-commercial traders have dominated the market with short positions for several months. The net position is negative despite the persistent long-term uptrend. Given events in the Middle East, it is unsurprising that dollar demand was high in the first half of 2026. The war is formally over, but the conflict persists. Only geopolitics can support the US dollar in the near term. However, until the pair closes below the trend line, we would not expect a strong decline.
In the long term, the dollar continues to weaken due to Donald Trump's policies, which is clearly visible on the weekly timeframe. The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time, and Trump's policy is aimed directly and indirectly at weakening the US currency. The long-term uptrend remains intact, as evidenced by the trend line. Price recently tested that line and bounced off it. According to the latest COT report (dated September 8), the "Non-commercial" group closed 11,800 BUY contracts and 2,600 SELL contracts. Thus, the non-commercial traders' net position decreased by 9,200 contracts over the week.
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to form a downward trend. The Fed's decision and tone have dramatically changed the outlook for the US dollar. We would say that for the second time this year a "black swan" arrived in the market, delivering unexpectedly good news for the dollar. Therefore, it is now reasonable to doubt sterling's prospects for sustained gains.
For September 17 we highlight the following important levels: 1.3042–1.3050, 1.3096–1.3115, 1.3179–1.3187, 1.3301–1.3309, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3465–1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671–1.3681. The Senkou Span B line (1.3519) and the Kijun-sen (1.3450) can also generate signals. It is recommended to move the Stop Loss to breakeven when the price moves 20 pips in the correct direction. The Ichimoku lines may shift during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals.
Today the BoE meeting results will be announced in the UK, and sterling will only be able to rally if those results are more hawkish than market expectations. The pound may attempt at least a small correction today, but the dollar remains the priority.
Today, traders may open short positions targeting 1.3301–1.3309 if price breaks below the 1.3369–1.3377 area. Open long positions if price bounces from the 1.3369–1.3377 area, targeting 1.3450 and 1.3465–1.3480.
Support and resistance price levels are thick red lines where movement may conclude. They are not sources of trading signals.
The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are strong lines.
Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price has previously rebounded. They are sources of trading signals.
Yellow lines indicate trend lines, trending channels, and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on COT charts shows the size of the net position of each category of traders.
