Trade Review and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The price test at 143.07 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the yen.

Today, in the second half of the day, speeches are scheduled by FOMC member Lorie K. Logan and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. It will be interesting to hear what Powell has to say about the latest inflation data. Markets are eagerly awaiting signals about whether the regulator plans to shift toward a softer policy or stick to a restrictive stance. Powell's comments will be closely analyzed for hints about the Fed's future course, as investors try to gauge how resilient the U.S. economy is in the face of high interest rates. Recent data suggest that it might be time for a softer approach.

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index data will also be released and could partly influence the pair's direction, provided the numbers significantly deviate from economists' expectations.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on the implementation of Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at around 143.05 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 143.54 (thicker green line on the chart). At 143.54, I plan to exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point rebound). A good rise in the pair can be expected today after strong U.S. data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 142.66 price level, when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and could lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward the 143.05 and 143.54 levels can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below 142.66 (red line on the chart), which would likely lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The main target for sellers will be 142.11, where I plan to exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Pressure on the pair is expected to remain today. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of 143.05 when the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward the 142.66 and 142.11 levels can be expected.

Chart Key:

• Thin green line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line: Target price for setting Take Profit or manually closing the position, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line: Target price for setting Take Profit or manually closing the position, as further declines beyond this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it's important to monitor overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be extremely cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember, successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is initially a losing strategy for intraday traders.