Trade Analysis and Guidance for Trading the Japanese Yen

The price test at 145.64 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning its downward movement from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair dropped toward the target level of 144.90.

Today, the market's direction will be shaped by the release of U.S. GDP data. Market participants will closely study these figures to gauge the resilience of economic growth and its implications for the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy. However, given the advance estimate, expectations are quite low.

Another important indicator will be the number of initial jobless claims. This labor market metric will help assess how effectively the economy is coping with inflation and rising interest rates. An increase in claims could indicate slower economic growth and heightened recession risks. In addition to economic data, public remarks from FOMC members Adriana Kugler and Austan Goolsbee are expected. The market will closely analyze their comments on the current economic outlook, inflation expectations, and the future path of monetary policy, hoping to gain insights into the Fed's upcoming actions.

For the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY at the entry point near 145.29 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising toward 145.97 (thicker green line). Around 145.97, I will exit long positions and open short trades in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point pullback. A significant upward move in the pair is unlikely today. Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if the price tests 144.88 twice, and the MACD is in the oversold zone. This would cap the downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. Expect a rise toward 145.29 and 145.97.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below 144.88 (red line on the chart), which should lead to a sharp drop. The key target for sellers will be 144.16, where I'll exit short positions and potentially reverse with a 20–25 point rebound. Selling pressure on the pair is expected to persist today. Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD is below the zero line and just starting to decline.

Scenario #2: I will also consider selling USD/JPY if the price tests 145.29 twice, and the MACD is in the overbought zone. This setup would cap the upside and initiate a downward reversal. Expect a drop toward 144.88 and 144.16.

Chart Key:

• Thin green line – Entry price for long positions
• Thick green line – Suggested Take Profit level; further growth beyond this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – Entry price for short positions
• Thick red line – Suggested Take Profit level; further decline beyond this level is unlikely
• MACD Indicator – Entry decisions should be based on overbought or oversold zones

Important Note for Beginner Traders:

Newcomers to the Forex market must be extremely cautious when making trading decisions. It's best to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental data releases to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news events, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without them, you risk quickly losing your entire deposit—especially if you neglect money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: for successful trading, you must have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous decisions based on the current market picture is usually a losing strategy for intraday traders.