The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for BTC/USD has been becoming more complex in recent months. We observed a corrective downward structure, which completed its formation around the 75,000 level. This was followed by a fairly strong upward movement, which could mark the beginning of a new impulsive trend. The first wave of this trend section appears to be complete, but the second wave looks very small and entirely unconvincing.

The news background supports Bitcoin, though not always and not consistently. I would say that market participants themselves interpret any news in favor of the main cryptocurrency—or they simply pay no attention to the news at all. We are witnessing the formation of a new upward trend segment, driven by emotions, demand, and belief in Bitcoin's sky-high future valuation. One way or another, Donald Trump's tariffs and economic slowdown risks no longer scare crypto traders. Previously, such risks led to capital fleeing risky assets, but now Bitcoin serves as a "safe haven from Donald Trump's policies."

The BTC/USD rate has significantly risen in recent weeks, with demand increasing almost daily. However, if you try to correlate the current movement with the news background, you won't find a clear link. Certainly, nearly every day there are reports from all corners about institutional investors, large companies, and funds continuing to build up their Bitcoin reserves, which naturally increases the asset's value. Still, it's extremely difficult to pinpoint the exact cause. Most likely, there is no single, specific reason.

Yet there is news that could have brought Bitcoin's price back down to earth. Recently, it became known that hackers stole the data of nearly 200,000 clients of the cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase. The most intriguing part is that the company itself is striving to enter the S&P 500 index. This isn't some obscure exchange that might vanish tomorrow, but one of the largest exchanges in the world. How can we not recall that the head of Binance was convicted of fraud, FTX collapsed due to the same kind of fraudulent behavior by its founder, and other similar cases in the crypto world? Just recently, Bybit was robbed of $1.5 billion. Cases of fraud, data theft, and wallet asset theft are not uncommon. Certainly, such news does not deter investors from digital assets, but in the short term, Bitcoin could have declined in response.

However, that hasn't happened, and Bitcoin prices either soar or steadily crawl upward. In my view, this is an unhealthy situation because it is difficult to predict how much further market participants are willing to keep buying. One could turn to wave analysis for assistance, but as mentioned earlier, corrective waves are virtually absent. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is approaching the 110,000 level.

General Conclusions

Based on the BTC/USD analysis, I conclude that the formation of the downward trend segment has not yet completed, but Bitcoin is currently building an upward wave structure that could become a new trend. What troubles me most is the near-total absence of corrective waves, which severely hampers the wave analysis process. In other words, it's extremely difficult to determine what part of the trend the instrument is currently in. I'm not particularly fond of such movements. They may look attractive but are far riskier than movements that at least somewhat resemble classical wave structures.

On a higher wave scale, the upward segment of the trend is still under construction, but its internal wave structure is very ambiguous due to the almost complete lack of corrections.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are hard to trade and often involve changes.
2. If you're not confident in what's happening in the market, it's better to stay out.
3. One can never have 100% certainty about the market direction. Don't forget about protective Stop Loss orders.