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06.05.2026 11:18 AMBitcoin has been tracing an upward move that is a correction for about two and a half months. This is clearly visible on the daily timeframe. A liquidity pool below remains untouched, and the price is likely to revisit it with roughly a 90% probability. Last week, there were first signs that the correction might be ending, but over the weekend, Bitcoin resumed its advance. We are now waiting for the next signal that would confirm the end of the 2.5-month correction.
Meanwhile, asset management firm Ark Invest, led by well-known investor Cathie Wood, published a report projecting Bitcoin's market capitalization to grow to $16 trillion by 2030. That would imply a per-coin price of $800,000 in four years. The current Bitcoin market capitalization is about $1.5 trillion. The forecast is built on multiple demand categories, each with its own properties. Ark Invest believes further Bitcoin upside will be driven by strong institutional demand, high liquidity in ETF vehicles, clearer regulation and state recognition of "digital gold."
Cathie Wood's forecast rests on capital flowing out of other investment instruments. For example, the total market cap of gold is about $14–15 trillion, and the global investable universe (stocks, bonds, real estate) is estimated at $200 trillion. If investors redirect just 5–10% of those allocations into Bitcoin, that would create the demand necessary for a several-hundred-percent surge in digital gold. Thus, Wood's thesis depends on ever?rising demand for Bitcoin at the expense of other assets. The report does not, however, explain why investors should abandon stocks, bonds, traditional gold and real estate in favor of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is still forming a full downtrend with corrective rallies against it. We continue to expect a decline toward $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the three-year uptrend), and currently, there are no signs of a trend reversal. The only current POI is the nearby bearish FVG on the daily timeframe in the $79,300–$81,200 area. It has not yet been fully invalidated, but could be soon. If that FVG is invalidated, the next POI for sells would be in the $84,900–$88,800 range. Downside targets remain below $60,000.
On the daily timeframe, a downtrend and corrective moves against it continue to form. The key sell pattern remains the bearish order block on the weekly timeframe. As we warned, the move triggered by that signal can be strong and long-lasting, and we do not believe it is complete. In the near term, ETH may continue a weak upward correction, but every correction eventually ends. A sell signal may form on the daily TF at the next FVG, and Bitcoin may form its own signal as well. We recommend watching for structure breaks on lower timeframes and the formation (or reaction to) bearish patterns on higher timeframes. A target at the 2026 low — $1,744 — looks achievable.
CHOCH — change of character / break of the trend structure. Liquidity — liquidity, traders' Stop?Losses that market?makers use to build their positions. FVG — Fair Value Gap (area of price inefficiency). The price often moves quickly through such areas, indicating the absence of one side in the market. Later, the price tends to return and react to these zones. IFVG — Inverted Fair Value Gap. After a return to such a zone, the price does not react but impulsively breaks through and then tests it from the other side.
OB — Order Block. A candle on which a market?maker opened a position in order to harvest liquidity and then form their own position in the opposite direction.
