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10.12.2025 09:17 AMThe US dollar has again strengthened against the euro, pound, and other risk assets – particularly against the Japanese yen. The weekly job growth in the private sector from ADP and strong data on job openings and labor turnover in the US from the Bureau of Labor Statistics have strengthened the US dollar. Traders interpreted this data as a sign of the ongoing strength of the US economy, which, in turn, raised expectations of a more cautious approach to monetary policy changes by the Federal Reserve. However, this is unlikely to impact today's decision by the central bank. For this reason, the dollar's strengthening has been modest.
Today, the first half of the day will see data on changes in Italy's industrial production, as well as a speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. These events may have some influence on the euro's exchange rate. Economists are closely monitoring Italy's industrial production figures as they are an indicator of the country's economic condition and can predict trends in the eurozone as a whole. Significant deviations from expectations in the data may trigger market volatility.
Lagarde's speech, in turn, provides a unique opportunity to gain insight into the current state of the eurozone's economy and the ECB's monetary policy plans. Traders will analyze her words closely, seeking hints about future interest rate moves. However, it is unlikely that we will hear anything new from her, especially given the completion of the eurozone's interest rate-cut cycle.
There is no data scheduled for the UK today.
If the data coincides with economists' expectations, it is advisable to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data is significantly above or below economists' expectations, it is best to use the Momentum strategy.
Buy on a breakout of level 1.1650, which may lead to an increase in the euro to around 1.1688 and 1.1705.
Sell on a breakout of level 1.1620, which may lead to a decline in the euro to around 1.1600 and 1.1570.
Buy on a breakout of level 1.3315, which may lead to an increase in the pound to around 1.3350 and 1.3380.
Sell on a breakout of level 1.3295, which may lead to a decline in the pound to around 1.3270 and 1.3230.
Buy on a breakout of level 156.90, which may lead to an increase in the dollar to around 157.35 and 157.70.
Sell on a breakout of level 156.55, which may lead to a sell-off in the dollar to around 156.12 and 155.75.
Look for short positions after a failed breakout above 1.1635 on a return below this level.
Look for longs after a failed breakout above 1.1618 on a return to this level.
Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3321 on a return below this level.
Look for longs after a failed breakout above 1.3291 on a return to this level.
Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 0.6652 on a return below this level.
Look for longs after a failed breakout above 0.6629 on a return to this level.
Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3863 on a return below this level.
Look for longs after a failed breakout above 1.3836 on a return to this level.
