Trade Analysis and Tips for the British Pound

The test of the 1.3255 level during the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the pound and missed the strong upward movement.

During the U.S. session, no key economic data is expected, so the market's focus will shift to speeches by FOMC members John Williams and Christopher Waller. Their hawkish tone could bring renewed pressure on the GBP/USD pair. The market is closely monitoring any signals from the Federal Reserve regarding future monetary policy. Given persistent inflation and a strong labor market in the U.S., hawkish remarks from Williams and Waller could reinforce expectations for prolonged high interest rates. This, in turn, would support the U.S. dollar and exert downward pressure on GBP/USD.

As for the intraday strategy, I'll rely on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today if the price reaches the 1.3286 entry level (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.3322 (thicker green line on the chart). I plan to exit long positions around 1.3322 and open short positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point pullback. Pound growth today can be expected as a continuation of the upward trend. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3266 level, at a time when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and may lead to a bullish reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.3286 and 1.3322 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after a breakout below the 1.3266 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a sharp decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3223, where I will exit short positions and open immediate long positions (targeting a 20–25 point rebound). Sellers are unlikely to show strong activity today. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to fall from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests the 1.3286 level twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and could trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.3266 and 1.3223 may follow.

Chart Legend

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – projected price for placing Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – projected price for placing Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – important to monitor overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Note

Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to avoid being in the market ahead of major fundamental reports to reduce the risk of being caught in sharp price movements. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one described above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.