Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 142.86 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving down from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair dropped by 20 points, after which demand for the dollar returned.

The U.S. dollar is showing strength. Ignoring yesterday's weak U.S. Q1 GDP data, USD/JPY continued to rise today. The Bank of Japan left its benchmark interest rate unchanged today. In its statement, the central bank said it currently has no plans to further raise rates due to uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy. The BoJ emphasized that it is closely monitoring developments in the global economy, particularly those that could affect inflation. Specifically, attention is being paid to fluctuations in energy and commodity prices and their impact on consumer prices. The market reacted to the Bank of Japan's decision with a fall in the yen and strengthening of the U.S. dollar. Later today, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold a press conference, during which we are likely to hear more details — potentially triggering another strong wave of USD/JPY growth.

As for the intraday strategy, I will continue to rely primarily on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching the entry point around 144.38 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 145.15 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 145.15, I plan to exit long positions and open short ones in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point move back). The best time to return to buying the pair is during corrections and significant USD/JPY pullbacks. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests 143.77 twice while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. A rise to the opposite levels of 144.38 and 145.15 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY only after a breakout below 143.77 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 142.96, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long ones in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move back). Selling pressure on the pair will return only if the Bank of Japan adopts a more aggressive stance. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 144.38 twice while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 143.77 and 142.96 can be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line – the estimated price where Take Profit can be placed or profits secured manually, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line – the estimated price where Take Profit can be placed or profits secured manually, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – it is important to follow overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market must be extremely cautious when deciding to enter the market. Before major fundamental reports are released, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit — especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan — like the one I've outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.