empty
04.04.2025 07:52 PM
EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on April 4th (Review of Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I highlighted the 1.0994 level and planned to base my market entry decisions on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and break down what happened there. A decline followed by a false breakout at that level provided an excellent entry point for long positions, resulting in a 50-point rally in the euro. The technical outlook was revised for the second half of the day.

This image is no longer relevant

To Open Long Positions on EUR/USD:

The euro posted a decent correction against the U.S. dollar, which large players quickly took advantage of by increasing their long positions ahead of key U.S. economic data. Two important reports lie ahead: nonfarm payrolls for March and the unemployment rate. These will determine the pair's direction.

Later in the U.S. session, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak and is expected to comment on the recently imposed U.S. tariffs on key trading partners, which could spark volatility in the U.S. dollar.

If the euro declines after the data release, a false breakout around the 1.1039 support will be a signal to buy EUR/USD, aiming for a bullish continuation toward 1.1104. A breakout and retest of that range from above would confirm the correct entry point for long positions, with targets at 1.1143, and the final target at 1.1179, where I will take profits.

In the scenario where EUR/USD falls and there is no buying activity near 1.1039, pressure on the euro will intensify. In this case, sellers may push the pair down to 1.0967. Only after a false breakout forms there will I consider buying. I also plan to open long positions on a rebound from 1.0891, targeting a 30–35 point intraday correction.

To Open Short Positions on EUR/USD:

Sellers tried in the first half of the day, and with some success, but failed to hold their ground. Now the outlook depends on strong U.S. data. If the reaction to the reports is negative, a false breakout at the 1.1104 resistance will offer a short entry point, targeting support at 1.1039. A breakout and consolidation below this level would be a good selling opportunity with further movement toward 1.0967, and the final target at 1.0891, where I will take profits.

If EUR/USD continues rising in the second half of the day—which seems more likely—and bears fail to act around 1.1104, I will postpone shorts until we test the next resistance at 1.1143, where I'll only sell after a failed consolidation. If there's no downward move even there, I'll consider shorts on a rebound from 1.1179, aiming for a 30–35 point pullback.

This image is no longer relevant

COT Report (Commitment of Traders) – March 25:

The COT report showed a slight increase in long positions and a rather sharp reduction in shorts. Interest in buying the euro is not rising significantly, but sellers continue to exit the market. Given the latest eurozone inflation data and ECB officials' comments, the central bank is likely to maintain its current stance at the April meeting, which could support the euro in the short term.

However, the extent to which U.S. tariffs impact other countries will be critical. The greater the perceived threat to global growth, the more pressure there will be on risk assets—including the euro. Long non-commercial positions rose by 844 to 189,796 and short non-commercial positions fell by 5,256 to 124,271. The gap between longs and shorts widened by 3,855

This image is no longer relevant

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages Trading is taking place above the 30- and 50-period moving averages, indicating a new bullish market for the euro.Note: The author uses H1 (hourly) charts to determine moving averages, which may differ from D1 (daily) chart readings.

Bollinger Bands In case of a decline, the lower band around 1.1000 will serve as support.

Indicator Descriptions:

  • Moving Average (MA): Smooths out price noise and shows trend direction. 50-period is yellow, 30-period is green.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Fast EMA – 12, Slow EMA – 26, Signal SMA – 9
  • Bollinger Bands: Volatility bands around a 20-period moving average
  • Non-commercial traders: Speculators (e.g., individual traders, hedge funds, institutions) who use the futures market for speculative purposes
  • Long non-commercial positions: Total long open positions held by non-commercial traders
  • Short non-commercial positions: Total short open positions held by non-commercial traders
  • Net non-commercial position: The difference between short and long positions held by non-commercial traders.

Recommended Stories

Bagaimana Cara Trading Pasangan GBP/USD pada 16 Juli? Tips Sederhana dan Analisis Trading untuk Pemula

Pada hari Selasa, pasangan GBP/USD juga anjlok setelah rilis laporan inflasi AS. Dalam beberapa minggu terakhir, pound Inggris menunjukkan penurunan yang lebih tajam dibandingkan euro; namun, kedua pasangan mata uang

Paolo Greco 07:30 2025-07-16 UTC+2

Bagaimana Rekomendasi Trading Pasangan EUR/USD pada 16 Juli? Kiat-kiat Sederhana dan Analisis Trading untuk Pemula

Pada hari Selasa, pasangan mata uang EUR/USD anjlok tajam setelah rilis laporan inflasi AS. Seperti kata pepatah, tidak ada yang memprediksikan masalah. Selama beberapa hari berturut-turut, para trader gagal menembus

Paolo Greco 07:30 2025-07-16 UTC+2

Rekomendasi dan Analisis Trading untuk GBP/USD pada 16 Juli. Pasar Menggunakan Faktor Formal Lain

Pada hari Selasa, pasangan mata uang GBP/USD melanjutkan pergerakan turunnya. Meskipun inflasi inti di AS naik sesuai dengan perkiraan—dan level inti bahkan meningkat lebih lambat dari yang diharapkan—pasar entah bagaimana

Paolo Greco 04:22 2025-07-16 UTC+2

Rekomendasi dan Analisis Trading untuk EUR/USD pada 16 Juli. Inflasi AS Tidak Mengejutkan tetapi Mengonfirmasi Ketakutan

Sepanjang hari Selasa, pasangan mata uang EUR/USD terus diperdagangkan dengan volatilitas minimal, bergerak mendatar. Laporan produksi industri Zona Euro menunjukkan angka yang relatif kuat untuk bulan Mei, tetapi mata uang

Paolo Greco 04:22 2025-07-16 UTC+2

Bagaimana Cara Trading Pasangan GBP/USD pada 15 Juli? Tips Sederhana dan Analisis Trading untuk Pemula

Pada hari Senin, pasangan GBP/USD melanjutkan pergerakan turunnya. Baru-baru ini, euro dan pound menunjukkan korelasi yang rendah, karena euro tetap datar selama beberapa hari sementara pound Inggris terus jatuh sepanjang

Paolo Greco 06:45 2025-07-15 UTC+2

Bagaimana Rekomendasi Trading Pasangan EUR/USD pada 15 Juli? Kiat-kiat Sederhana dan Analisis Trading untuk Pemula

Pada hari Senin, pasangan mata uang EUR/USD secara formal melanjutkan pergerakan turunnya, tetapi dalam praktiknya diperdagangkan mendatar dengan volatilitas rendah untuk hari kedua berturut-turut. Level 1,1666 belum ditembus. Ada kemungkinan

Paolo Greco 06:45 2025-07-15 UTC+2

Rekomendasi dan Analisis Trading untuk GBP/USD pada 15 Juli: Pound Sterling Menunjukkan Kelemahan

Pada hari Senin, pasangan mata uang GBP/USD melanjutkan pergerakan turunnya. Meskipun tidak ada berita makroekonomi baik di Inggris maupun di AS, pasar tetap menemukan alasan baru untuk menjual pound Inggris

Paolo Greco 03:58 2025-07-15 UTC+2

Rekomendasi Trading dan Analisis Trading untuk EUR/USD pada 15 Juli: Euro Terjebak di Dekat Level Kunci

Pada hari Senin, pasangan mata uang EUR/USD bergerak mendatar. Dalam artikel kami sebelumnya, kami memperkirakan bahwa tidak akan ada pergerakan kuat pada hari trading pertama minggu ini, karena pasar telah

Paolo Greco 03:58 2025-07-15 UTC+2

Bagaimana Rekomendasi Trading Pasangan GBP/USD pada 14 Juli? Kiat-kiat Sederhana dan Analisis Trading untuk Pemula

Pada hari Jumat, pasangan GBP/USD diperdagangkan dengan penurunan yang cukup signifikan. Mengapa pound Inggris kembali jatuh sementara euro tetap stabil? Kita terbiasa melihat dinamika serupa antara euro dan pound. Namun

Paolo Greco 06:30 2025-07-14 UTC+2

Bagaimana Rekomendasi Trading Pasangan EUR/USD pada 14 Juli? Kiat-kiat Sederhana dan Analisis Trading untuk Pemula

Pada hari Jumat, pasangan mata uang EUR/USD melanjutkan pergerakan turun yang ringan, sejalan dengan tren saat ini. Kami telah mengatakan hal yang sama sepanjang minggu, karena praktis tidak ada yang

Paolo Greco 06:30 2025-07-14 UTC+2
Tidak bisa bicara sekarang?
Tanyakan pertanyaan anda lewat chat.
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaTrade anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.