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16.11.2023 08:59 AM
Imbal hasil obligasi AS bertenor 10-tahun mencapai puncaknya pada 5% dan sejak itu terjadi reversal yang memerlukan tekanan turun yang lebih korektif dalam beberapa bulan mendatang. Meskipun demikian, kemungkinan akan ada kenaikan sementara kembali ke level 4,75 - 4,85% dalam beberapa hari/minggu ke depan, sebelum penurunan berikutnya menuju 4,06%. Pada akhirnya, kita akan memperkirakan penurunan menuju target korektif 38,2% di dekat 3,25%.
Penurunan imbal hasil obligasi AS akan mengamankan penguatan pasar saham di hari Natal, namun risiko penurunan yang lebih besar di pasar saham saat kita memasuki tahun 2024 akan semakin besar, karena penurunan imbal hasil obligasi menunjukkan perekonomian AS yang lemah. Risiko AS memasuki resesi pada tahun 2024 cukup tinggi.
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