03.06.2025 06:27 PM
美元/日元組合正顯示出混合動態：儘管美元總體回升，日本日元仍因日內賣家受到負面因素的壓力。
投資者預期日本央行將繼續逐步正常化其貨幣政策，這得到日本央行行長植田和男的聲明支持，這加強了美元的多頭並限制了日元的增長。同時，美聯儲預測2025年降息，對日元構成基礎支撐。支持遠東貨幣的另一個因素是與烏克蘭持續衝突和貿易緊張相關的地緣政治風險，這增強了日元作為避險資產的需求。
然而，對於日本央行在2026年後減緩債券購買計劃的呼籲，反映了逆轉大規模刺激措施的挑戰，抑制了日元多頭的積極買盤。此外，美元從多周低點的小幅反彈，也支撐了美元在美元/日元組合中的需求。總體來看，日本央行和美聯儲之間的貨幣政策預期分歧，形成了限制美元/日元組合顯著增長的力量平衡，這需要交易者在開倉時保持謹慎。從技術角度看，跌破200日SMA被視作空頭的觸發點。然而，持續強於144.00水平可能推動現貨價格向144.50的關鍵阻力位升高。另一方面，若低於143.00的心理水平，價格將易受進一步下跌至142.40的影響，隨後是上周低點和142.00的整數位。然而，只要每日和4小時圖上的振盪指標保持在負區間，該組合最小阻力的路徑仍然偏向下行。
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