03.06.2025 05:17 AM週一市場的風險偏好表現普遍：S&P 500 上漲0.41%，油價上漲1.71%，金價上漲2.37%，美元指數下跌0.63%，5年期美國國債收益率從3.96%上升到4.00%。這一系列的變動將歐元推升至目標水平1.1420之上，為邁向下一目標1.1535鋪平了道路。我們預期該水平將被突破，並進一步增長至1.1692。如果出現反轉形態，我們將在1.1692附近準備進行修正。
今天的開局稍有下降，原因是澳大利亞數據惡化：第一季度公司總利潤下降了0.5%，而預期為增長1.4%，而經常賬盈餘從-125億美元惡化至-147億美元。
然而，今天晚些時候將公佈歐元區5月份的通脹數據，預測消費者物價指數（CPI）同比增長2.0%，低於4月份的2.2%。這一數據，加上市場已期待降息，將進一步加大對歐元的壓力。同時，4月份美國工廠訂單預計下降3.1%。再加上本週初美中關係急劇惡化（特朗普突然威脅對華為實施次級制裁），以及與歐洲的談判陷入停滯，歐元的地位可能會有所改善。關鍵在於不錯過當投資者決心打破、防風險範式轉變的時刻（使得美元再次成為避險貨幣）。
在四小時圖上，價格已經穩定在1.1420水平以上。價格的增長高於兩條指標線，並且Marlin振盪器在正區域上升。
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