22.05.2025 12:18 PM
紐元兌美元匯率在達到每週高點約 0.5965–0.5970 後回落，目前交易於 0.5920 附近，創下新的日低。雖然受到新西蘭預算公佈的影響，但由於美元賣壓暫時緩解，使得該貨幣對的跌勢有所緩和。
新西蘭政府展現出財政審慎，預測下一財年的預算赤字將縮小。雖然這可被視為正面信號，但面對經濟挑戰和貿易不確定性所致的財政謹慎同時增加了紐西蘭儲備銀行（RBNZ）進一步降息的可能性。這些因素壓力紐元，從而影響到 NZD/USD 匯率。
另一方面，由於對美國預算的擔憂以及特朗普總統新立法方案可能帶來的後果，美國美元仍面臨壓力。市場還在消化美聯儲可能降息的預期，這削弱了美元，並有助於限制紐元在 NZD/USD 匯率中的損失。
然而，由於美中貿易緊張局勢重新升溫，紐元的多頭應謹慎行事。中國指控美國濫用出口管制措施並違反日內瓦貿易協議，因美國發布指導警告企業不要使用華為 Ascend AI 芯片。緊張局勢升級及中國的指控可能降低對紐元等風險敏感貨幣的需求。這給投資者帶來額外風險，並呼籲在考慮市場進場或開立 NZD/USD 多頭倉位時需保持謹慎。
從技術角度看，振盪指標仍處於正區域，確認預期仍然看漲。然而，若該貨幣對跌破 200 天簡單移動平均線（SMA），可能性將轉向對空頭有利。
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