繼穆迪在週五將美國信用評級從AAA下調至Aa1之後,昨天也看到美國主要銀行——Bank of America、JPMorgan和Wells Fargo——的評級從Aa1降至Aa2。財政部長S. Bessent正確地稱該機構為一個「滯後指標」,而市場對此舉幾乎毫無反應:S&P 500指數上漲0.09%,10年期美國國債收益率保持在4.45%(與5月13日相同),美元指數下跌0.36%,這一變動難以形容為市場反應,並且與中期趨勢相符。我們不懷疑事件正在累積,最終將導致市場大崩盤和經濟危機,但不太可能在短期內發生。
在日線圖上,阻力位1.1266被上影線刺穿。週二開盤時價格上升,但週一的缺口尚未回補。如果價格鞏固在1.1266以上,然後繼續上升突破1.1535,則將與Marlin振盪器形成看跌背離,這可能導致價格急劇回落至1.0955以下,不僅填補缺口,還將粉碎歐元樂觀者的希望。
在H4圖表上,價格正試圖攀升至指標線之上,這表明有突破1.1266的意圖。Marlin震盪指標也在上升,但除非價格穩定在1.1266之上,否則仍可能急劇跌向1.1150,從而為更穩定的增長鋪平道路(這並不排除之後可能出現的崩盤)。
缺口較小,在其他貨幣上要麼不存在,要麼已經閉合。因此,主要的標準是價格是否穩定在1.1266阻力位之上。
這對貨幣對正試圖吸引買家,但現貨價格仍接近年度低點,看起來容易進一步下滑。 由於報導指出美國和加拿大可能在6月15日的G7峰會前達成貿易協議,加拿大元受到支持。
歐元/日元(EUR/JPY)貨幣對持續表現出穩定的正面動態。現貨價格保持在三週高點附近。
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