19.05.2025 06:22 PM
澳元/美元對的即時價格仍然處於過去一個月以來的熟悉範圍內，交易員們正在等待新的推動因素，以便在做出下一步走勢方向的決定之前做出承諾。與此同時，中國的宏觀經濟數據呈現複雜的景象，影響市場情緒。
根據中國國家統計局的數據，4月份的零售銷售同比增長了5.1%，低於5.5%的預測。工業生產增長了6.1%，超出預期的5.5%，但是較之前7.7%的增長有所放緩。固定資產投資也未達預期，同比增長了4.0%。
這些數據對市場的即時反應有限，因為交易員們的注意力集中在即將於週二公布的澳洲儲備銀行（RBA）的政策決定上。預計澳洲央行將下調基準利率25個基點，並可能在今年晚些時候再次降低借貸成本，這可能會對澳元形成壓力。然而，美中貿易戰的緩和已經降低了對更激進貨幣寬鬆政策的預期。
RBA的政策前景可能決定澳元/美元對的下一步走勢。全球風險情緒在美國政府信用評級下調後仍然承受壓力，投資者對風險較高資產的胃納仍然不高。另一方面，對美聯儲進一步降息的預期可能支持澳元，這需要空頭保持謹慎。
技術展望：在技術面上，日線圖上的震盪指標仍然處於正區間，支持該貨幣對的看漲基調。最近的阻力位於200周期簡單移動平均線（SMA），而支撐位則在關鍵心理水準0.6400。
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