After a 5-day strengthening streak, the EUR/USD pair has slowed its ascent today, trading near the 1.0600 level as of writing.
Market participants prefer not to engage in significant trading activities and exercise caution in the lead-up to important publications. Additionally, on Thursday (at 11:30 GMT), the ECB will release a report containing information about the September meeting of the Bank's Governing Council.
This document also provides an overview of the current ECB policy with planned changes in the financial and monetary spheres. As known, following the September meeting, the European Central Bank announced a 25-basis-point increase in key rates, bringing them to 4.50% for main refinancing operations and 4.75% for the marginal lending facility. The accompanying statement from the meeting mentioned that the "Governing Council considers that the key ECB interest rates have reached levels that, maintained for a sufficiently long duration, will make a substantial contribution to the timely return of inflation to the target."
Investors will closely examine the minutes from this ECB meeting to catch additional signals regarding future monetary policy.
Moreover, yesterday, the International Monetary Fund downgraded its economic growth forecasts for the Eurozone. This year, it could be 0.7% (down from the previous expectation of 0.9%), and next year, 1.2% (versus the previous forecast of 1.5%), with the possibility of a recession.
However, from the perspective of ECB officials, there have been quite hawkish statements regarding the prospects of further tightening monetary policy. For instance, the head of the Bank of France, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, recently noted that inflation in the Eurozone needs to decrease to the target level of 2.0%. Also, a member of the ECB's Governing Council, Klaas Knot, stated on Wednesday that "inflation is still too high," and the bank is "prepared for further rate adjustments if disinflation persists."
Therefore, the dynamics of the EUR/USD pair at the moment are influenced by both the dollar and the euro. It is also important not to overlook the role of the dollar as a safe-haven asset. Given the complex geopolitical situation in the world and the new hotspot of tension in the Middle East, investor attention to the role of the safe-haven dollar may again shift after the publication of all the aforementioned documents and macroeconomic indicators.
From a technical perspective, EUR/USD continues to trade within the medium-term and long-term bearish markets, below the key resistance levels of 1.0760 and 1.1040, respectively. In our previous review, we noted that after breaking the resistance level of 1.0542, if the upward correction continues, targets at the levels of 1.0633 and 1.0676 may be reasonable when planning your trading strategy. As we can see, the first target is almost reached, with only 5 points remaining to reach it. A break of today's low at 1.0593 could be the first signal to resume short positions.
今天,週三,由於美元普遍走弱,日元迎來第二天連續上漲。然而,由於對日本央行可能加息時間的不確定性,這一漲勢的進一步發展受到限制。
今天是歐元/日元連續第四天呈現上升趨勢,同時也是過去七天中第六個上漲的交易日。即期價格達到了新的兩週高點,鑑於目前賣出日圓的趨勢,該匯率可能超過173.00的水平。
最糟的情況被避免了。這足以讓標普500指數創下新高紀錄——這是今年的第16次。
週二發佈的通脹報告加強了市場參與者的預期,即美國央行將在九月會議上降息,為股市持續增長鋪平了道路。 讓我們先從報告開始。
週二,英鎊兌美元貨幣對再次表現疲軟。上午,英國公佈了失業率和工資數據,但這些數字顯得過於「平淡」。
歐元/美元的貨幣對再度相當平靜地交易。雖然該貨幣對並沒有完全停滯不前,但波動性仍然低。
毫不客氣地說,最新的美國通脹報告令人驚艷。儘管美國的進口關稅是至少在過去50年內最高的,但通脹卻幾乎沒有加速。
週二,美元收到了過去幾週中的第一個好消息。市場早已經忘記唐納·川普曾巧妙地簽署了與日本和歐盟的貿易協議,因為同時,美國總統又引入並提高了幾十項其他關稅。
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