EUR/USD has continued to erase its daily gains and retreated toward the 1.0840 area, despite substantial gains on Wall Street. FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell's and ECB President Lagarde's appearance at the IMF event could add noise in the upcoming hours.
The EUR/USD pair is in an upward corrective phase that may continue in the upcoming sessions. It peaked at 1.0935, briefly surpassing the 38.2% retracement of its latest daily slide at 1.0920, now trading below it. The daily chart shows that it is up for a third consecutive day but that sellers rejected the advance at around a bearish 20 SMA. Meanwhile, the longer moving averages accelerated their declines above the shorter one, as technical indicators keep advancing within negative levels.
The 4-hour chart shows that the pair is retreating from a mildly bearish 100 SMA, while technical indicators turned lower after nearing overbought readings but hold within positive levels. At the same time, the 20 SMA heads higher below the current level, limiting the bearish potential of the pair. Renewed buying interest beyond the 1.0920 level should lead to a continuation of the corrective advance, while further slides below 1.0860, the immediate Fibonacci support level, should put the pair back on the bearish track.
Support levels: 1.0860 1.0825 1.0790
Resistance levels: 1.0920 1.0970 1.1015
從技術角度看,目前現貨價格仍處於每週交易範圍內。然而,由於日線圖上的震盪指標仍在正區間,因此確認完全的看跌整合還言之過早。
週四,歐元/美元在1.1695的76.4%回撤水平反彈,歸向美元,其後跌破1.1637–1.1645的支撐區。今天,可能繼續下跌至1.1590的50.0%斐波那契水平。
趨勢分析(圖1)。 週五,從1.3440的水平(昨日的日線收盤價),市場可能開始向下移動至1.3378——23.6%的回撤水平(黃色虛線)。
趨勢分析(圖1)。 週五,從 1.1664 水平(昨日的日K線收盤價),市場可能開始向下移動至 1.1626 — 23.6% 回撤位(藍色虛線)。
看來1.1392-1.1632的區間(或略高)的確對歐元相當舒適,大量零售買單開始在此範圍累積。但這也隱藏著大家熟知的陷阱。
昨天,加元完成了從 7 月 23 日到 8 月 1 日上漲幅度的 50% 回調。Marlin 振盪器的信號線在接近零線時開始減速,這表示可能出現反轉。
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