Robert Carnell, an ING chief economist, recommends paying attention to unexpectedly strong business performance in China. According to the report of Caixin Agency, business activity in the manufacturing sector of China in September rose to 51.4 points from 50.4 points in August, the growth rate can be called surprisingly strong. "In reality, the Caixin manufacturing index has been dominated by an unstable but upward trend since its fall in January this year, when the index fell to 48.3 points. New evidence suggests that more export-oriented private-sector firms, which make up the bulk of this study, actually see prospects, which explains the increase in the activity. Even the export order index, which so far remains in negative territory, seems to indicate that things are not going so badly," said Carnell.
At the same time, there is no certainty that the Caixin indicator, which determines the state of activity in the service sector, will also grow actively. Most analysts believe that the index is almost unchanged and will be 52.0 points in September (52.1 points in August). This seems like a reasonable guess. "If I had to guess, I would say this study should converge with the production counterpart, although the correlation between the two seems to be virtually nonexistent (0.09 since early 2017). Today's modest leap will not seem so unexpected, but the likelihood of a strong rise is very low."
S&P 500和納斯達克股票指數分別上漲了0.83%和1.02%,創下歷史新高。 但由於對可能引入新關稅的擔憂,指數期貨回落,這增加了全球市場的不確定性。
華爾街不斷刷新紀錄。週三,由資訊科技巨頭推動的標普500指數再次創下新高。
全球股市週二小幅下滑,同時美國國債收益率微升。投資者正密切分析美國經濟數據潮流,並衡量美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾的言論,以評估何時開始降息。
週一,標普500指數與納斯達克指數在創歷史新高後收盤,這標誌著它們在過去一年中最強勁的季度表現。投資者情緒因貿易談判的樂觀前景和降息的可能性而得到提升。
週一的交易以正面收尾:S&P 500 上漲了 0.52%,而納斯達克 100 則增加了 0.47%。今年下半年的開端是在美國與歐盟貿易協定抱有樂觀期望的背景下展開的。
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