There will be choppy sterling trading on Friday given the impact of month-end positioning with higher volatility into the afternoon London fix. EUR/GBP is trading at around 0.9070 with GBP/USD at 1.2170.
Political factors will remain extremely important with the UK parliament returning from recess on Tuesday.
Tensions will remain extremely high given the government move to suspend parliament from around September 10th until October 14th. This suspension will put very strong pressure on MPs opposed to any 'no-deal' Brexit to take action very quickly next week.
When the House of Commons returns next week there will be a rapid move from opposition lawmakers to avoid the scenario of any EU exit without a deal.
The UK government has announced that negotiations with the EU will be stepped up during September with twice-weekly meetings between the two sides. Any hint of a compromise would trigger sharp sterling's gains.
CFTC data will need to be watched very closely late in the US trading on Friday. Short positions remain close to 29-month highs at over 90,000 contracts, maintaining the potential for aggressive short-term covering. This potential will intensify if there is no significant decline in shorts for the latest reporting week.
The sterling has proved relatively resilient since the suspension announcement with GBP/USD losses back below 1.2200 triggered primarily by the dollar's strength as EUR/GBP has declined slightly.
The latest economic data recorded a sharp decline in the Lloyds business confidence index with a retreat to 1 for the August reading from 13 the previous month and the lowest reading since December 2011. Consumer confidence also worsened last month and political uncertainty will inevitably sap sentiment in the short term, but with a rapid turnaround if political uncertainty eases.
The Bank of England is unwilling to cut interest rates as long as a disruptive Brexit is avoided while the ECB will announce a comprehensive monetary-easing package in September.
金價連續第二天保持正向動能。美國總統特朗普的貿易政策及其對全球經濟的影響持續引發不確定性,令投資者情緒受到影響。
週三,英鎊/美元貨幣對維持了其下降趨勢,這是修正性質的,可能在任何時候結束。價格保持在移動平均線以下,本週並無重大宏觀經濟發展。
歐元/美元貨幣對在週三持續呈現非常平靜的交易狀態。 該對保持輕微的下行偏置,正如我們在所有最近的文章中所提到的。
今天,美元/加元(USD/CAD)貨幣對顯示出復甦跡象,向1.3700水平攀升,並接近此前創下的週高點。基本因素顯示出多頭主導,並有可能進一步推動匯率上漲。
。 由於中國這個澳洲主要貿易夥伴公佈的通脹數據,澳元/美元對穩定在當前水平,呈現略微的看漲意圖,但波動有限。
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