There will be choppy sterling trading on Friday given the impact of month-end positioning with higher volatility into the afternoon London fix. EUR/GBP is trading at around 0.9070 with GBP/USD at 1.2170.
Political factors will remain extremely important with the UK parliament returning from recess on Tuesday.
Tensions will remain extremely high given the government move to suspend parliament from around September 10th until October 14th. This suspension will put very strong pressure on MPs opposed to any 'no-deal' Brexit to take action very quickly next week.
When the House of Commons returns next week there will be a rapid move from opposition lawmakers to avoid the scenario of any EU exit without a deal.
The UK government has announced that negotiations with the EU will be stepped up during September with twice-weekly meetings between the two sides. Any hint of a compromise would trigger sharp sterling's gains.
CFTC data will need to be watched very closely late in the US trading on Friday. Short positions remain close to 29-month highs at over 90,000 contracts, maintaining the potential for aggressive short-term covering. This potential will intensify if there is no significant decline in shorts for the latest reporting week.
The sterling has proved relatively resilient since the suspension announcement with GBP/USD losses back below 1.2200 triggered primarily by the dollar's strength as EUR/GBP has declined slightly.
The latest economic data recorded a sharp decline in the Lloyds business confidence index with a retreat to 1 for the August reading from 13 the previous month and the lowest reading since December 2011. Consumer confidence also worsened last month and political uncertainty will inevitably sap sentiment in the short term, but with a rapid turnaround if political uncertainty eases.
The Bank of England is unwilling to cut interest rates as long as a disruptive Brexit is avoided while the ECB will announce a comprehensive monetary-easing package in September.
儘管歐元和英鎊對美元的漲幅不大,希望Jerome Powell暗示美聯儲接近降息的投資者可能會失望。 今天,決策者預計將連續第五次保持利率不變。
星期三有大量宏觀經濟報告即將發布。德國、歐元區和美國都將公佈第二季度的GDP報告。
週一,英鎊/美元這一貨幣對繼續下跌,並將這一趨勢延續至週二。值得注意的是,英鎊早於歐元開始下跌,就在上週。
可能會有一些鴿派的暗示,但預計不會與美聯儲官員此前的聲明和言論有太大差異。這是2025年第五次會議結束前一天的普遍預期。
唐納·川普繼續重塑世界秩序。這位美國總統始終對全球近一半的國家發號施令——而他的策略至今行之有效。
實質還是表象?在七月初,歐元兌美元的強勢上漲至近四年高點,可能顯示出歐元區對光明前景的信心。強勁的經濟意味著強勢的貨幣——這一基本面的原則依舊有效。
今天,USD/CAD 已連續第四天上漲,受美國美元穩定的買盤支撐。此外,原油價格的輕微下跌對緊密聯繫於商品市場的加幣造成了壓力。
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