The Australian dollar has been unable to make headway. So, AUD/USD retreated to lows below 0.6720 during Thursday's Asian session before a recovery to 0.6740. The pair remains close to 10-year lows just below 0.6700 registered earlier in August.
The latest Australian macroeconomic data remained weak with business investment declining 0.5% in the second quarter following a revised 1.3% decline in the first quarter. There was also a sharp 7.2% drop in new home sales following a 12.4% slump in the previous month.
There was, however, a 2.5% increase in plant and machinery spending which is a key component in the GDP calculation.
Domestic bond yields remain close to record lows with the benchmark 10-year yield around 0.88% with negative yields in real terms. The bond market is overbought given domestic inflation trends.
Second-quarter GDP data will be released next Wednesday and growth will also be supported by robust government spending.
The Reserve Bank of Australian will announce its latest interest rate decision on Tuesday with interest rates expected to be held at 1.00%.
Global trade and growth fears will continue to determine market sentiment in the short term with fears that the US-China trade war will severely damage growth. Inevitably, AUD/USD will be driven by trade headlines.
Australia's trade surplus hit a record high in July. Copper managed to recover from 2-year lows recorded earlier this week with iron ore prices also making strong gains on Thursday. Gold is trading near 6-year highs while silver remains at 28-month highs.
Despite the gloomy market mood, the Baltic dry bulk index which is an index of activity in the shipping sector has strengthened to the highest level since late 2013 which suggests that underlying global trade conditions have held firm.
CFTC data recorded little change in the latest week and close to record highs, indicating prospects for short covering if sentiment shifts.
Technically, there should be strong AUD/USD support into the 0.6700 area.
今日,黃金持續日內回升,並已回補昨日大部分的損失。與此同時,在美聯儲聲明引發鷹派上揚後,市場參與者獲利了結,美元略微走弱,使得美元指數達到兩個月高點。
週四,紐元/美元組合試圖結束連續五天的跌勢,部分受到美元盤整的支撐。 追踪美元兌主要貨幣的一籃子貨幣的美元指數,自週三聯邦儲備局採取強硬立場後達到兩個月高點略有回落。
週四,英鎊/美元組合引起市場關注,部分逆轉了週三的下跌走勢,並創下自5月13日以來的最低水平。目前,現貨價格僅高於1.3200這一關鍵心理水平。
昨天,美國聯邦儲備委員會主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾頂住了來自白宮的壓力,表示由於通脹風險,中央銀行必須保持警惕。 聯邦公開市場委員會週三投票決定連續第五次維持利率不變。
「我聽說美聯儲將在九月降息。」再次強調,唐納德·特朗普將願望當作事實。
週四將公佈相對較多的宏觀經濟報告,但其中只有少數幾份具有重要意義。德國和歐元區將公佈失業率數據,德國也將發佈其通脹報告。
在週三,歐元/美元貨幣對保持其看跌的偏好。我們將在其他文章中討論當天的所有宏觀經濟報告;本篇文章重點討論本週的關鍵事件。
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