Gold was unable to make headway on Friday with support sapped by a net improvement in risk appetite and a firm dollar tone. Net losses continued on Monday with spot gold dipping to test the $1,500 per ounce support level.
There is a strong likelihood that the Federal Reserve and ECB will ease monetary policy in September. The ECB is likely to announce a substantial package of interest rate cuts and government bond purchases while the Federal Reserve is likely to announce a further 0.25% rate cut.
Interest rate cuts will have a mixed impact on gold as the potential beneficial impact of lower short-term yields would be offset by a decline in demand for safe haven gold amid hopes for an improvement in risk conditions.
The net impact on global yield curves will deserve attention as a steeper yield curve would be an important indicator of waning fears about the global outlook and gold would be likely to lose favor with investors.
If yield-curve inversion intensifies, however, there will be renewed defensive gold demand.
Central bankers and policymakers will be anxious to provide reassurance and the most likely outcome is an easing of net fears, at least in the short term.
As usual, President Donald Trump remains a crucial wild card. There is a significant risk that he will see the global downturn as increasing Chinese and EU vulnerability. There is also a risk that Trump will look to intensify trade wars in an attempt to force concessions. In this situation there would be a fresh surge in demand for defensive assets including gold.
CFTC data recorded a small decline in non-commercial gold positions, but the total remains close to 35-month highs, maintaining the risk of sharp long liquidation if there is a net improvement in global risk appetite. Longer-term gold fundamentals remain attractive and there is still a strong case for buying on dips.
在即將到來的這一週,美國將發布通脹和工業生產的報告,還有一些其他中等有趣的指標。其中最重要的無疑是通脹數據。
在過去兩週內,英鎊的跌幅超過了歐元,但這兩種工具的波浪形態幾乎相同。因此,我整個星期都指出,英鎊也應該會出現三波修正結構。
S&P 500 指數再創歷史新高,輪動現象成為美國股市的特徵。投資者積極買入上半年表現不佳的股票,反觀此前增長領先的股票現在表現落後。
週五的宏觀經濟發布計劃非常少,但其數量仍然比本週任何先前的日子都多。英國將公佈國內生產總值(GDP)和工業生產數據。
週四,英鎊/美元貨幣對未能鞏固在移動平均線之上,因此修正仍在繼續。 整個週四,英鎊/美元對未能穩住在移動平均線之上,因此修正仍持續進行。
EUR/USD 貨幣對在週四時逐漸下滑。我們繼續等待目前的調整結束,並期待上升趨勢的恢復。
金價連續第二天保持正向動能。美國總統特朗普的貿易政策及其對全球經濟的影響持續引發不確定性,令投資者情緒受到影響。
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