Mass protests in Hong Kong have reinforced political and economic fears, especially with the risk that US-China relations will deteriorate further. Gold has scope for further net gains with short-term support on any dips to $1,510 and any intervention in Hong Kong
After finding support just below $1,490 per ounce on Monday, gold posted measured net gains with a move back above $1,500 helping to underpin sentiment.
Confidence in the global trade and growth outlook has contributed to further underlying demand for safe-haven assets. Cryptocurrencies have been unable to make significant headway with gold securing increased demand as a prime safe-haven asset.
The situation in Hong Kong has provided a boost to gold demand. It increased sharply late in the Asian session with a push to fresh 6-month highs above $1,520 per ounce.
Pro-democracy protesters disrupted the main Hong Kong international airport and flights were suspended during Monday. Although flights have now resumed, there are still delays and the political situation remains tense with further protests planned at the airport.
There have been reports that mainland Chinese security forces are gathering in Shenzhen which increased concerns over possibility to deploy these forces in Hong Kong.
The rhetoric from Beijing has also become more aggressive due to the situation in Hong Kong described as terrorism.
Equity markets have weakened further with the Hang Seng index declining 2.0% on Tuesday to 2019 lows.
Any mainland intervention in Hong Kong would intensify political tensions between the US and China, with the Chinese authorities already accusing the US of being behind the protests. An escalation of the situation would make it even less likely that there will be progress in US-China trade talks.
From Beijing's perspective, Hong Kong could also provide a distraction from domestic economic concerns. Geo-political concerns would inevitably trigger further gold demand, especially given the impact on economic confidence.
Singapore's second-quarter GDP data missed expectations, reinforcing fears over the outlook. The Hong Kong economy remains a crucial regional trade hub and weakness would reinforce regional economic pressures.
US yields have continued to decline with the 10-year yield close to 34-month lows and economic fears would tend to push global bond yields even lower. If it comes true, net gold support will continue to increase.
周二將發佈多份宏觀經濟報告。當天的關鍵報告當然是美國消費者物價指數(CPI)。
上週五,美國財政部宣布了自2017年以來的首次預算盈餘。市場上的許多人可能將此解釋為對美元的利好消息,但我看不出有什麼樂觀的理由。
歐盟和美國之間的貿易談判持續受到關注,其結果預計將對歐元的未來走勢產生最大的影響。 從經濟角度來看,歐元顯得穩健。
唐納·川普會將聯準會主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾免職嗎?這並非一個假設性問題。表面上看,答案似乎很明顯——「不會。
像 鮑威爾效應 —就像蝴蝶效應一樣—是真實存在的。市場已經在押注聯邦儲備主席在2026年上半年卸任之後會立即大幅放鬆貨幣政策。
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