Yesterday, the US dollar experienced a sharp decline, and the reasons for this—at least according to the market—are quite remarkable.

As soon as Trump declared for what seems like the 34th time the end of the war with Iran, the markets exploded. "Today, we ended the war with Iran," the president stated during his evening tele-town hall, adding, "We got everything we wanted."

This led to a significant drop in the dollar against a number of risk assets. Just yesterday morning, Trump promised to deliver a "very strong" blow to Iran and threatened to seize the country's oil infrastructure. By the evening of the same day, he announced the end of the strikes and said that Iran's supreme leader had agreed to a deal. According to Axios, the memorandum of understanding includes a 60-day truce (inclusive of Lebanon), immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz without payment for passage, easing sanctions on Iran, and lifting the American naval blockade. Nuclear negotiations will continue during the truce. Trump characterized this document as a very strong memorandum of understanding, albeit somewhat conceptual.

It is worth noting that the Iranian side has not officially confirmed this. The Fars agency reported that the text of the agreement has not yet been approved by officials. Notably, among the leaders Trump spoke with on the phone—UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Israel, Turkey—Iran is absent. Sources indicate that negotiations are ongoing, with Qatar playing a key role, and that both sides are using military exchanges as leverage—meaning the recent strikes were part of the negotiating process, not its conclusion.

Israel has also outlined its red lines. Netanyahu conveyed to Trump that the final agreement must include the removal of enriched uranium, dismantling enrichment infrastructure, restrictions on missile production, and cessation of Iranian support for regional proxies. This is a serious agenda for the negotiations, which, according to Trump, should conclude this weekend in Europe, with Vice President Vance's participation.

All this indicates that the market is once again trading on hope—and doing so with enthusiasm. However, those who have been following this story for the past four months remember that Trump has repeatedly declared a deal imminent, only for it to fall through. The key disagreements regarding the nuclear program and Iranian assets remain unresolved. If the signing does take place over the weekend, it will be a turning point for global markets, inflation, and monetary policy. If it fails again, the pullback will be painful, and the dollar will quickly regain all its positions within the first minutes of trading on Monday.

Technical Picture of EUR/USD

Currently, buyers need to focus on reclaiming the 1.1580 level. Only this will allow them to aim for a test at 1.1615. From there, it is possible to reach 1.1645, but doing so without support from major players will be quite challenging. The furthest target will be the high of 1.1665. In the event of a decrease in trading instruments, I expect serious actions from major buyers only around 1.1555. If no one is present there, it would be prudent to wait for a new low at 1.1530 or open long positions from 1.1505.

Technical Picture of GBP/USD

As for the GBP/USD technical picture, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance level at 1.3425. Only this will allow them to target 1.3450, above which a breakthrough will be quite difficult. The furthest target will be the area of 1.3475. If the pair falls, bears will attempt to take control over 1.3380. If this is successful, the breakout will deal a serious blow to bullish positions and push GBP/USD down to a low of 1.3360, with prospects of reaching 1.3330.